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Immobilier et cycle économie : ce que nous apprend la Grande Récession

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

L'immobilier joue un rôle majeur dans les cycles économiques par plusieurs canaux. Le premier canal est celui de l'investissement résidentiel (Leamer, 2007). Nous montrons ici que dans plusieurs pays, ce canal a été important (États-Unis, Espagne). Le deuxième canal est celui d'un accélérateur financier, dans lequel la hausse des prix de l'immobilier accroît l'endettement des ménages dont il est le collatéral. Lorsque l'activité se retourne, la dette accumulée des ménages aggrave la récession et se traduit par une montée des inégalités (Mian et Sufi, 2014). Le troisième canal est celui de l'effet de richesse. S'il est discuté sur le plan théorique, il apparaît qu'en cas de bulle, il peut avoir un effet puissant. À partir de données exploitant les comptes nationaux, les comptes de patrimoine et les données détaillées sur la consommation, nous explorons ces trois canaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Immobilier et cycle économie : ce que nous apprend la Grande Récession," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399451, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03399451
    DOI: 10.3917/ecofi.115.0041
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03399451
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    Keywords

    Immobilier; Cycle économique; Dette des ménages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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