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I- Analyse historique et prospective

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Péléraux

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

L'éclatement de la crise des subprime à l'été 2007 et ses répercussions sur l'activité réelle en 2008 ont placé le PIB français sur une trajectoire atypique depuis sept ans. Avec un niveau de PIB au premier trimestre 2015 supérieur de seulement 1,9 % à celui du dernier pic cyclique daté du premier trimestre 2008, soit, rapporté à la durée, un taux de croissance annuel quasi nul (+ 0,3 %), la phase actuelle surprend par sa durée (graphique 1). Si l'on rapporte la richesse créée par l'économie à la population, le constat est plus sombre encore, avec un recul du PIB par tête de 1,4 % en sept ans. Cette situation est inédite en France : les reprises observées dans le passé ont toujours ramené, après sept ans, le PIB largement au-dessus de son pic d'avant crise.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Péléraux & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2015. "I- Analyse historique et prospective," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03398317, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03398317
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03398317
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