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Regard cliométrique sur les conditions d'une paix réussie

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Parent

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

En croisant regards d'historiens et d'économistes, ce numéro de la Revue de l'OFCE a souligné la richesse et la pluralité des lectures qui peuvent être tirées 100 ans après la promulgation du Traité de Versailles. Faire un bilan sous forme de leçon définitive tirée de l'histoire est un exercice ardu : l'un des écueils majeurs provient du point dans le temps à partir duquel on choisit d'analyser le passé. Par exemple si, comme il est de coutume sur le sujet, on choisit de se situer en 1933 pour juger des conséquences du Traité de paix de 1920, on sera tenté de voir dans l'un la conséquence de l'autre, tombant ainsi sous le coup de l'ineffable biais cognitif post hoc, ergo propter hoc (« à la suite de cela, donc à cause de cela »), ce qui constitue le sophisme bien connu et dénoncé par les cliomètres, consistant à prendre pour la cause ce qui n'est qu'un antécédent.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Parent & Vincent Touzé, 2021. "Regard cliométrique sur les conditions d'une paix réussie," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03375083, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03375083
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.171.0327
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03375083
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    Keywords

    cliométrie; paix; raisonnement historique;
    All these keywords.

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