British voting intentions and the far reach of 9/11

This study adds to the literature on the effects of terrorism on voting behaviours. It examines the impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, in New York, on voting preferences in the UK, implementing a Regression Discontinuity Design with British Household Panel Survey daily data on thousands of British voters, observed before and after 9/11. It concludes that intentions to vote for the Conservative Party significantly increased, while support for the Labour Party declined, at least among marginal voters. In contrast, voters close to a political party strengthened their support for Labour, the incumbent party at the time, to reduce that for the Conservatives, as in a rally-round-the-flag effect. Voters' responses significantly differed by gender: marginal votes for the Conservatives increased, especially among men, while the rally-round-the-flag effect was mostly driven by the responses of women. These findings may help reconcile earlier, contrasting evidence of terrorism voting impacts.