Food, biofuels and the environment: Is there a virtuous path for the EU?[Alimentation, biocarburants et environnement : existe-t-il une voie vertueuse pour l'UE ?]

Energy and food security challenges call for reconsidering interactions within the food-feed-fuel-environment nexus. Using an agricultural supply-side model, we assess the capacity of EU-28 agriculture to jointly increase food calorie and advanced biofuel production and examine the associated environmental impacts. We characterize a two-dimensional food-biofuel production set under the economic and technical conditions of the 2010s. Biofuel potential is derived from crop residues and dedicated perennial crops and expressed as farm-gate equivalent biofuel. Considered separately, food calorie production could rise by a factor of 2.5, and the advanced biofuel potential could reach 2.5 EJ per year, about 20% of current EU road and aviation fuel demand. We identify a compatibility corridor, characterized by implicit price ratios associated with the food and biofuel constraints, along which both outputs can increase jointly, up to 2 EJ of biofuel supply, while reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving such outcomes, however, requires substantial structural and spatial changes in agricultural land allocation, particularly a marked reduction in livestock production and associated feed demand.