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Regulated saturation: Hypermarket diffusion and retail transformation

Author

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  • Dany Vyt

    (IGR-IAE Rennes - Institut de Gestion de Rennes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Rennes - UR - Université de Rennes)

  • Magali Jara

    (Nantes Univ - Nantes Université)

Abstract

This paper develops an institutional theory of retail saturation by analyzing the diffusion of hypermarkets in France from 1963 to 2023. We introduce the concept of "regulated saturation", where market carrying capacity is jointly determined by competitive dynamics and institutional constraints. Using long-run diffusion models, event-study analysis, and spatial entropy measures, we show that regulatory interventions significantly reduce both diffusion speed and equilibrium market size, generating structural breaks in expansion dynamics. While aggregate growth slows, spatial analysis reveals persistent homogenisation of retail networks, indicating that diffusion continues through reconfiguration rather than expansion. Overall, results suggest that saturation is not purely endogenous but institutionally shaped. Hypermarket evolution follows a three-stage process of diffusion, saturation, and strategic adaptation within an emerging omnichannel system, extending diffusion theory by integrating regulatory constraints into market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Vyt & Magali Jara, 2026. "Regulated saturation: Hypermarket diffusion and retail transformation," Post-Print halshs-05759024, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05759024
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