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The effectiveness of OPEC and OPEC+ from 2009 to 2024: An empirical appraisal

Author

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  • Gil Montant

    (UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France, LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées)

Abstract

This empirical study focuses on the effectiveness of the coordination strategies developed in the oil market between 2009 and 2024 with a focus on the OPEC + oil cartel settled-up by the end of 2016. One uses various econometric techniques specific to panel data to assess the ability of oil producers adherent to OPEC and/or OPEC + to exercise an impact on the oil price. The study integrates the time horizon followed by oil producers in the definition of their collusion strategies. The analysis reveals that some coordination mechanisms were already present amongst the set of ten countries that will later adhere to the OPEC+ and this before the official set-up of this cartel. However, these strategies proved to be ineffective to exercise a significant impact on oil price in 2009–2016. In addition, the analysis suggests the existence of a significant link between the time horizon considered by a country and its incitation to conform to official production quotas. Thirdly, results indicate that both OPEC and OPEC + have been more able to impact the oil price in 2017–2022. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 seems to have disorganized the oil market, which explains a significant loss of influence of both OPEC and OPEC + on the oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Gil Montant, 2025. "The effectiveness of OPEC and OPEC+ from 2009 to 2024: An empirical appraisal," Post-Print halshs-05030739, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05030739
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105529
    as

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    Keywords

    Collusion; Cartel; Petroleum; OPEC; OPEC+;
    All these keywords.

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