Speculation rather than enterprise? Keynes' beauty contest revisited in theory and experiment
In Keynes' beauty contest, agents make evaluations reflecting both an expected fundamental value and the conventional value expected to be set by the market. They thus respond to fundamental and coordination motives, respectively, the prevalence of either being set exogenously. Our contribution is twofold. First, we propose a valuation game in which agents strategically choose how to weight each motive. This game emphasises public information leads agents to favour the coordination motive. Second, we test the game through a laboratory experiment. Subjects tend to conform to theoretical predictions, except when fundamental uncertainty is low relative to strategic uncertainty. Abstract In Keynes' beauty contest, agents make evaluations reflecting both an expected fun
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|Date of creation:||29 May 2017|
|Publication status:||Published in Séminaire Co-ordination in Economics, Fondation Les Treilles, Tourtour, 29 mai-3 juin 2017, May 2017, Tourtour, France|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01569164|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
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- Antonio Cabrales & Rosemarie Nagel & Roc Armenter, 2007.
"Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: an experimental study,"
Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(3), pages 221-234, September.
- Rosemarie Nagel & Antonio Cabrales & Roc Armenter, 2002. "Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study," Economics Working Papers 601, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Simone Alfarano & Andrea Morone & Eva Camacho, 2011. "The role of public and private information in a laboratory financial market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central bank transparency and the crowding out of private information in an experimental asset market," Staff Reports 487, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Baeriswyl Romain & Cornand Camille, 2016. "The Predominant Role of Signal Precision in Experimental Beauty Contests," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 267-301, January.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2014. "Reducing Overreaction To Central Banks' Disclosures: Theory And Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1087-1126, 08.
- Frank Heinemann & Rosemarie Nagel & Peter Ockenfels, 2004. "The Theory of Global Games on Test: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1583-1599, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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