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Régime de change et commerce Chine-Afrique

Author

Listed:
  • Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ping Hua

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cet article étudie l'influence des régimes de change sur la croissance spectaculaire du commerce entre la Chine et l'Afrique au sud du Sahara. Un modèle de gravité augmenté des taux de change réels montre que les exportations de biens manufacturés de la Chine sont simulées par la dépréciation réelle du renminbi à l'égard de nombreuses monnaies africaines, alors que ses importations de produits primaires y sont insensibles. Ainsi la concurrence chinoise risque d'handicaper le développement de l'industrie africaine dans les pays qui connaissent une appréciation réelle de leur monnaie vis à vis du remnminbi, soit du fait du rattachement de celle-ci à l'euro, soit du fait de l'ampleur de leurs exportations de produits primaires, elles-mêmes stimulées par la demande chinoise.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Ping Hua, 2013. "Régime de change et commerce Chine-Afrique," Post-Print halshs-00826171, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00826171
    as

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    Cited by:

    1. Issaka Dialga, 2017. "Changing the Africa's impoverishing economic model: Towards a rewarding sustainable specialization model with a new factor of production," Working Papers halshs-01500431, HAL.

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