La voie étroite du « facteur 4 » dans le secteur des transports : quelles politiques publiques, pour quelles mobilités ?

Today, numerous works conclude that transport seems to be completely coupled to economic and export/import growth. Therefore, as a direct consequence of economic development transport sits today as one of the major final energy consumers and one of the most important sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, this situation of continuous increase in transport clearly poses an environmental problem. In this paper we propose to asses a certain number of possible solutions through scenario building in a backcasting manner using the TILT (Transport Issues in the Long Term) model. In particular, we evaluate three different scenarios that address how technology and different public policies can contribute towards a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions. Each scenario allows a quick comprehension of the types of results that can be obtained through different policy mixes. In sum, realistic technological hypothesis show that a 50% reduction in emissions, from the 2000 level, is a clear possibility, and that the remaining 25 % reduction in emissions is possible through different types of policy mixes.