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Rice market integration and food security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India

Author

Listed:
  • Mahamane Maliki Amadou

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Issa Sanogo

    (WFP - World Food Programme - United Nations)

Abstract

Coarse rice market integration between Nepal and India is analyzed applying a threshold autoregressive model. The price response behaviour of traders is found to be consistent with an asymmetric price adjustment mechanism, indicating coarse rice prices in Nepal respond to shocks originating in India. The results show that adjustments to negative price deviations from long-run stable equilibrium are faster than adjustments to the positive ones given a null threshold. Given that trade flows mainly from India to Nepal, Nepali traders would adjust their prices upward to align with the long-run equilibrium value relatively more quickly in the case of negative price deviations, than if the price deviations were positive. Such a high speed of adjustment to negative price deviations could be detrimental to net food buyers' food security status in the absence of a price stabilization mechanism. However, a price stabilization policy in Nepal, a food deficit and import dependent country, would hardly have any effect on prices unless further effort is made to build up the level of national food reserves for short-term food security interventions. In the current context of structurally low levels of national food reserves, an alternative short-term policy such as foreign aid, in the form of food or income transfers, targeting the most vulnerable households to price increases is necessary through social safety net programmes. In the long-run, an improvement of transportation infrastructure between market hubs (other than the Biratnagar trade basin) in the Terai (Nepal) and India would contribute to the reduction of transaction costs and create incentives for more competition in formal cross-border trade with India. In times of negative shocks such as the high food price crisis in 2008, restrictive food trade policies in India will continue to undermine household food security in Nepal.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahamane Maliki Amadou & Issa Sanogo, 2010. "Rice market integration and food security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India," Post-Print halshs-00518371, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00518371
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abbas Ali Chandio & Waqar Akram & Uzma Bashir & Fayyaz Ahmad & Sultan Adeel & Yuansheng Jiang, 2023. "Sustainable maize production and climatic change in Nepal: robust role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the long-run and short-run," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1614-1644, February.
    2. Gerald Shively & Ganesh Thapa, 2017. "Markets, Transportation Infrastructure, and Food Prices in Nepal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 99(3), pages 660-682, April.
    3. Burhan Ahmad & Ole Gjølberg, 2015. "Are Pakistan’s Rice Markets Integrated Domestically and With the International Markets?," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(3), pages 21582440155, July.
    4. Taufiq Marwa & Abdul Bashir & Azwardi & Mohamad Adam & K.M.H. Thamrin, 2017. "Market Integration of Agricultural Products," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 69-82.
    5. Mohammad J Alam & Raghbendra Jha, 2016. "Asymmetric threshold vertical price transmission in wheat and flour markets in Dhaka (Bangladesh): seemingly unrelated regression analysis," ASARC Working Papers 2016-03, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    6. Wenmei Guo & Veeshan Rayamajhee & Alok K. Bohara, 2023. "Impacts of climate change on food utilization in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 630-659, February.
    7. repec:ers:ijebaa:v:v:y:2017:i:1:p:69-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hiroyuki Takeshima & Yanyan Liu, 2018. "The Role of Plant-Breeding R&D in Tractor Adoption among Smallholders in Asia: Insights from Nepal Terai," Working Papers id:12748, eSocialSciences.
    9. Veeshan Rayamajhee & Wenmei Guo & Alok K. Bohara, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Nepal," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 111-134, April.
    10. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Jiang, Yuansheng & Ahmad, Fayyaz & Adhikari, Salina & Ain, Qurat Ul, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of climatic and technological factors on rice production: Empirical evidence from Nepal," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Janelle Mann & Derek Brewin, 2021. "Investigating the Impact of Trade Disruptions on Price Transmission in Commodity Markets: An Application of Threshold Cointegration," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-7, September.
    12. Shrestha, Rudra Bahadur & Huang, Wen-Chi & Ghimire, Raju, 2014. "Market Price Cointegration Of Tomato: Effects To Nepalese Farmers," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
    13. Khanal, Uttam & Wilson, Clevo & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Lee, Boon, 2018. "Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change, Its Determinants and Impacts on Rice Yield in Nepal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 139-147.
    14. Chizari, Amir Hossein & Sani, Masoud Fehresti & Kalashami, Mohammad Kavoosi, 2013. "Investigating Market Integration and Price Transmission of Different Rice Qualities in Iran," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 3(4), pages 1-7, December.
    15. Tatiana Papiashvili & Svetlana Saksonova & Ramona Rupeika-Apoga, 2017. "FDI Attraction: Comparative Analysis of the Baltic States and Georgia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 81-93.
    16. Robinson, Amanda Lea, 2016. "Internal Borders: Ethnic-Based Market Segmentation in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 371-384.
    17. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara, 2012. "World and Bangladesh Rice Market Integration: An Application of Threshold Cointegration and Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM)," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 135119, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Alisher Tleubayev & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Linde Gotz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68, October.
    19. Sekhar, C.S.C., 2012. "Agricultural market integration in India: An analysis of select commodities," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 309-322.
    20. Bairagi, S. & Mohanty, S., 2018. "Analysis of Price Transmission along the Cambodian Rice Value Chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277022, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. repec:ers:journl:v:v:y:2017:i:2:p:69-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Buysse, Jeroen & Begum, Ismat Ara & Wailes, Eric J. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Measuring Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effect: The Case of Bangladesh Rice Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124435, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Tleubayev, Alisher & Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2021. "The relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustments in the Russian cheese market integration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 44-68.
    24. Alessandro De Matteis & Fethiye Burcu Turkmen Ceylan & Bereket Kebede, 2021. "Market resilience in times of crisis: The case of Darfur," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1107-1127, August.

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