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Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats

Author

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  • Mathilde Maurel

    (ROSES - Réformes et Ouverture des Systèmes Economiques post-Socialistes - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) entering the EU in May 2004 are expected to have a monetary policy compatible with the ERM-II system to eventually enter EMU (European Monetary Union). Abandoning an independent monetary policy could entail significant costs for countries in the process of catching up. However, these costs have probably been overestimated, biased by the traditional optimal currency area criteria. Firstly, these costs actually change depending on whether they are evaluated ex ante and ex post accession. Between times, financial integration is likely to increase significantly, which changes the evaluation parameters. Accession to the EU and greater capital mobility means that there is little room left for an independent monetary policy, especially in relatively small countries more vulnerable to speculative attacks. Secondly, while the link between choice of exchange rate regime and the underlying fundamentals is somewhat tenuous, the political determinants prove to be decisive.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel, 2004. "Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats," Post-Print halshs-00468608, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00468608
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    Cited by:

    1. José De Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2004. "Investissements directs étrangers et intégration : quels enseignements pour les Peco ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 87-100.
    2. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.

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