IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La contagion liée au changement des anticipations : évidence de la crise coréenne


  • Mohamed Ayadi

    () (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

  • Wajih Khallouli

    () (Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales de Tunis - Université de Tunis)

  • René Sandretto

    () (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


The object of this article, applied to the case of Korean currency crisis of 1997-1998, is to identify the contagion through an empirical study of the investor anticipations dynamics which is freed from the pseudo explanation hiding place misery by ‘sunspot'. To this end, we develop a, Markov-switching model in line with Jeanne and Masson (2000), but in which we use endogenous probabilities of transition between the states from the economy so as to be able at the same time to identify and explain an effect of contagion. One of the principal contributions of our modelling is that it shows in the Korean case, an overlap of the role of country fundamentals and a self-fulfilling contagion resulting from a rupture in the "beliefs of the market", it self related to the crisis in Thailand and Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Ayadi & Wajih Khallouli & René Sandretto, 2008. "La contagion liée au changement des anticipations : évidence de la crise coréenne," Post-Print halshs-00303689, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303689
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server:

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Patricia M. Danzon & Y. Richard Wang & Liang Wang, 2005. "The impact of price regulation on the launch delay of new drugs-evidence from twenty-five major markets in the 1990s," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 269-292.
    2. Antonio Cabrales & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2007. "The determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: Are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?," Economics Working Papers 1032, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Heuer, Alexander & Mejer, Malwina & Neuhaus, Jennifer, 2007. "The national regulation of pharmaceutical markets and the timing of new drug launches in Europe," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Danzon, Patricia M. & Chao, Li-Wei, 2000. "Cross-national price differences for pharmaceuticals: how large, and why?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 159-195, March.
    5. Valérie Paris & Elizabeth Docteur, 2008. "Pharmaceutical Pricing and Reimbursement Policies in Germany," OECD Health Working Papers 39, OECD Publishing.
    6. Cooper, Thomas E. & Fries, Timothy L., 1991. "The most-favored-nation pricing policy and negotiated prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 209-223, June.
    7. Margaret K. Kyle, 2007. "Pharmaceutical Price Controls and Entry Strategies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 88-99, February.
    8. Danzon, Patricia M & Chao, Li-Wei, 2000. "Does Regulation Drive out Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 311-357, October.
    9. Patricia Danzon, 1997. "Price Discrimination for Pharmaceuticals: Welfare Effects in the US and the EU," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 301-322.
    10. Pecorino, Paul, 2002. "Should the US allow prescription drug reimports from Canada?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 699-708, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    East Asia crisis; Korean currency crisis; contagion; multiple equilibria; anticipations; self-fulfilling speculation; Markov-switching models.; équilibres multiples; crise de change coréenne; crise asiatique; spéculation auto-réalisatrices; modèles à chaîne de Markov;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.