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A hierarchical fusion of expert opinion in the TBM

Author

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  • Minh Ha-Duong

    (EPP - Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University - CMU - Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh], CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We define a hierarchical method for expert opinion aggregation that combines consonant beliefs in the Transferable Belief Model. Experts are grouped into schools of thought, then opinions are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator within groups and the non-interactive disjunction across. This method is illustrated with a real-world dataset including 16 experts.

Suggested Citation

  • Minh Ha-Duong, 2008. "A hierarchical fusion of expert opinion in the TBM," Post-Print halshs-00264124, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00264124
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00264124
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