Antifragility in entrepreneurial ecosystems: absorptive capacity, organizational learning, and startup performance

Organizations increasingly face frequent and intense disruptions, requiring strategies that engage with uncertainty rather than simply absorb shocks. In entrepreneurial ecosystems characterized by institutional volatility, these challenges are compounded by economic instability and uneven support structures. This study examines how startups develop antifragile responses, defined as the capacity to benefit from disruption, through organizational learning and absorptive capacity. We analyse a two-wave survey of 209 Ghanaian startups using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling with lagged financial performance data. The findings are interpreted as time-ordered and predictive rather than causal. Results indicate that antifragility is associated with the relationship between organizational learning and financial performance, with this association stronger at higher levels of potential absorptive capacity. We further identify temporal and contextual variation in absorptive capacity. Potential absorptive capacity expands firms' ability to interpret external knowledge, while realized absorptive capacity reflects its application under conditions shaped by organizational readiness and environmental context. This relationship is non-linear, indicating delayed and context-sensitive capability activation. Organizational learning is associated with how firms interpret and respond to volatility, shaping variation in adaptive responses across firms.