Job Prospects, Migrant Networks, and Family Retention: The Determinants of Emigration Intention among Young Tunisian Graduates

This study examines the determinants of emigration intention among young graduates and final- year students in Tunisia, a phenomenon that has grown markedly in scale according to recent survey evidence, yet remains underexplored empirically beyond a handful of professional groups such as physicians. Drawing on relative deprivation theory, the new economics of labour migration, and migrant network theory, the study tests a model articulating five factors: perceived local job prospects, perceived degree devaluation, family social support, migrant social capital, and economic optimism. Data were collected through a questionnaire administered to 128 graduates and final- year students, using scales adapted from established instruments in the international literature, and analysed through multiple linear regression following exploratory factor analysis of the measurement scales. The results show that a negative assessment of local job prospects and migrant social capital are the two strongest and most robust determinants of emigration intention, together with degree devaluation and economic optimism, both of which retain a weaker, partially confirmed effect once the model is estimated in full. Family social support, contrary to the incentive-effect hypothesis drawn from household migration theory, does not emerge as a significant determinant, a result that nuances the reading of migration as a collective family strategy and instead points towards a more retentive family role. These findings call for rethinking talent-retention policies in Tunisia beyond purely economic levers, taking into account the weight of transnational social networks in the spread of the migration phenomenon.