Upcycling climate policies in times of crisis: from the politics of trade-offs to synergy politics

This chapter asks how climate policy can move from a fragile politics of trade-offs to a more durable politics of synergies. We argue that backlash against mitigation in Europe stems less from climate scepticism than from the perceived incompatibility between decarbonization and living standards. Combining Eurobarometer evidence on environmental and economic concerns with an Agent-Based Stock–Flow Consistent model (SEN-HARP), we conceptualize political support as the interaction between two layers: political drive and public support. We then explore policy scenarios that contrast business-as-usual, Green Deal-style and post-growth strategies. Our results show that when climate policies are embedded in strong provisioning systems and redistributive mechanisms, rapid decarbonization can enhance needs satisfaction and consolidate pro-transition coalitions instead of eroding them. Upcycling existing instruments into integrated policy packages thus appears crucial to transform trade-offs into social-ecological synergies and to make ambitious mitigation both politically feasible and socially just.