Modelling the structural and land use effects of support policies for the expansion of organic farming: The case of organic dairy farms in France

Organic farming is increasingly recognised as a promising agricultural model, yet limited research has explored the mechanisms driving farm conversion in response to economic and policy incentives and how they affect the land market and alter the structure of conventional and organic farms. This study employs an agent-based model to assess the effects of policy measures supporting organic farming in the French dairy sector, representing different types of conventional and organic dairy farms. Results: show that policy interventions can effectively increase organic acreage and support progress toward the European Commission's target of 25% organic farmland, as outlined in the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies. Provided our modelling assumptions, particularly fixed output and input prices (except for land) and the rule governing farm conversion, among the measures analysed, per-hectare subsidies for organic farms are more cost-effective in promoting organic land expansion than taxes on fertilisers and pesticides for conventional farms. Redirecting subsidies to support agricultural employment contributes to organic growth, albeit less efficiently than the other measures. The 25% target can also be achieved by improving the organic farms productivity, reducing the amount of labour and capital needed to produce the same output by-6.8%, although the cost-effectiveness of such an intervention cannot be assessed. Policy instruments affect conventional farm types unevenly, with different groups more adversely affected depending on the policy. Finally, growth in organic land is mainly driven by the conversion of conventional farms rather than expansion of land within initially present organic farms.