THE LOBITO CORRIDOR AND THE RESOURCE CURSE IN THE DRC: Towards Economic Upgrading or Consolidation of the Extractive Value Chain in Lualaba?[LE CORRIDOR DE LOBITO ET LA MALÉDICTION DES RESSOURCES NATURELLES EN RDC : Vers un upgrading économique ou une consolidation de la chaîne de valeur extractive au Lualaba ?]

This article examines whether the rehabilitation of the Lobito Corridor (2023–2025) constitutes a lever for economic upgrading in Lualaba Province (DRC) or reinforces its extractive dependence within global value chains for critical minerals. Drawing on a framework combining GVC theory (Gereffi), the resource curse literature (Auty, van der Ploeg), and critical realism (Bhaskar), the study integrates Process Tracing, cobalt-copper value gap measurement, exploratory time-series analysis (N=14, 2010–2023), and inter-corridor comparison (MSSD). Results reveal a structurally stable value gap of ~97.1%: approximately 97% of exported FOB value is not identifiable as directly observable local revenue (fiscal receipts, royalties, local wages, and local purchases), with no reduction even during price booms. This exploratory indicator, which does not constitute a full value-chain accounting of value captured abroad, points to weak local budgetary and wage traceability of the mining rent. The corridor effect is statistically non-significant (p > 0.65), and Process Tracing confirms 120 years of extractive continuity, from colonial patterns (UMHK, 1906) to current Sino-Congolese joint ventures. The article contributes to the literature by proposing an analytical framework integrating GVC theory and the resource curse to assess an African railway corridor's impact on extractive economy upgrading, alongside a novel measure of the value gap integrating corridor, Gécamines, and foreign investment regime variables.