Combining Foresight Narratives and Serious Games to Codevelop Adaptive Water Management Pathways

In the Mediterranean area, climate change threatens both farming and water resources. The need for methods to support reflection and dialogue on transformational adaptation strategies is urgent. We propose and demonstrate an innovative approach, co-constructing pathways for climate change adaptation and water management by combining (i) participative scenario building and (ii) a serious game. While the first explores the combination of exogenous driving forces on the agricultural system consistent with SSPs at regional level, the serious game allows us to explore the co-evolution of land and water use and related policies at the farm level. Results confirm that land use can vary greatly in a medium-term horizon. Our approach helps to envision the role of land use and diversification in future water demand under climate change. The results show that the effect of land use changes on water demand is much higher than the effect of climate scenarios.