Cross-country comparison of ex-ante sugar tax evaluations: Evidence from the biscuit, non-alcoholic beverage, and dairy dessert markets in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom

Background Excessive sugar consumption is associated with substantial health and economic burdens. Public policies aimed at reducing sugar intake, such as education campaigns and product labelling, have shown limited effectiveness, prompting growing interest in fiscal measures such as sugar taxes. While taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages have demonstrated reductions in consumption, evidence remains limited regarding their extension to other high-sugar products. Objective This study assesses the potential impacts of sugar taxation policies in France, the United Kingdom, and Spain on three key product categories that contribute substantially to sugar intake: non-alcoholic beverages, biscuits, and dairy desserts. Method Using nationally representative scanner data and a structural econometric model, we estimate demand, model firm pricing behavior under oligopolistic competition, and simulate the effects of a two-tiered sugar-based tax. Results Results indicate that firms generally over-shift the tax to prices, leading to significant reductions in purchases and sugar intake, with the largest impacts observed in non-alcoholic beverages and French dairy desserts. The tax is particularly effective among households with overweight or obese adults. Although consumer surplus and firm profits decline, these losses are outweighed by fiscal revenues and reductions in the social costs of excessive sugar intake. Conclusions Overall, our findings suggest that extending sugar taxes to other food and drink products can reduce sugar consumption and generate positive welfare effects. We then provide valuable evidence for policymakers considering broader fiscal measures to address diet-related health challenges.