Determinants of Vietnam’s Fruit Export Growth: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading exporters of tropical fruits, yet its export performance remains vulnerable to market concentration, rising trade costs, and increasingly stringent international standards. This study investigates the determinants of Vietnam's fruit export growth using a balanced panel dataset covering 12 major importing markets over the period 2010–2025 (192 observations). A fixed-effects panel regression model was employed to examine the effects of importing-country population, geographical distance, domestic fruit production, import tariffs, international shipping costs, free trade agreements (FTAs), and the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam's fruit export value. The empirical results indicate that domestic fruit production is the most influential driver of export growth, followed by the population of importing countries, both of which have significant positive effects. In contrast, geographical distance and import tariffs significantly reduce export performance, highlighting the importance of trade costs and market accessibility. The estimated effects of international shipping costs, FTAs, and the COVID-19 pandemic are not statistically significant after controlling for other explanatory variables. The final model explains approximately 82% of the variation in Vietnam's fruit export value, indicating strong explanatory power. The findings suggest that enhancing production capacity, improving product quality, diversifying export markets, reducing logistics costs, and strengthening value-chain integration are essential for improving the competitiveness and long-term sustainability of Vietnam's fruit exports.