Assessing health systems’ capacity to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic: preliminary evidence from MENA countries

With the spread of COVID-19 to the Middle-East and North African (MENA) region, many health experts share concerns about the capacity of these countries' health systems to halt such a pandemic. While a variety of factors may affect the spread of any infectious disease, health systems remain ultimately responsible for early detection, prevention and treatment. We assess and compare the readiness and capacity of the health systems in a set of MENA countries to respond to the current pandemic, using two mashup indices previously proposed to measure countries' detection capacity, risk of, and vulnerability to infectious diseases. As of May 1st 2020, the MENA region countries had a total of 213 045 confirmed cases of COVID-19, while the total number of deaths stood at 4 907. Although most of the confirmed cases (69%) and deaths (84%) are concentrated in Turkey and Iran, COVID-19 fatality rates remain relatively low in these two countries (2.6% and 6.4%, respectively) as compared to other countries in the region (Algeria: 11.2% and Egypt 7.1%). Reported figures from developed countries suggest that the fatality of COVID-19 depends, inter alia, on the demographic structure of the population, with more than 80% of fatalities concentrated amongst the elderly. Although disaggregate data by age is not readily available in the MENA countries, the high fatality rates observed are in line with global trends: with the exception of Israel and Turkey, COVID-19 fatalities appear to be higher in countries with a higher share of elderly people (Figure 1). However, other factors pertaining to health systems' capacity may explain the discrepancies observed between countries.