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The financialization of the bulk wine market: towards the launch of a futures market?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Marie Cardebat

    (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Jean-Marc Figuet

    (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Yves Jégourel

    (CNAM Paris - Centre d'enseignement Cnam Paris - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam])

  • Catherine Lis-Castiblanco

    (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Can bulk wine be treated as a commodity and support an organized futures contract? Using weekly prices (2000-2020) for bulk red and ros & eacute; wines without geographical indication in France, Italy and Spain, we test two prerequisites for a viable regional contract: persistent spot-price volatility and sufficient market integration across origins. Volatility is modelled with country-specific ARMA - GARCH specifications, while integration is assessed with Johansen tests, VECM dynamics and Dynamic OLS. Conditional heteroskedasticity is pronounced in all three markets, with near-unit volatility persistence in Spain. The trivariate system is not cointegrated; the Italy - Spain pair provides marginal evidence of one cointegrating vector at the 5% level. The estimated long-run elasticity from Italy to Spain is above unity (1.162), rather than one-to-one. These results support the economic plausibility of an Italy - Spain contract but do not by themselves establish market feasibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marie Cardebat & Jean-Marc Figuet & Yves Jégourel & Catherine Lis-Castiblanco, 2026. "The financialization of the bulk wine market: towards the launch of a futures market?," Post-Print hal-05713851, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05713851
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2026.2714299
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