Estimating the direct impact of mega sport events on domestic tourism demand: A micro-level approach using Paris 2024

Research on mega sport events and tourism demand has largely overlooked domestic tourism and relied on aggregated data that mask individual behavioural adjustments. Using Paris 2024 as a case study, we propose a methodology to estimate the direct impact of mega sport events on domestic tourism at the individual level. A retrospective paired-sample survey is used to construct a two-period panel dataset (2023–2024). Individuals are classified as positively affected, negatively affected, or unaffected using self-reported motivations validated by counterfactual behaviour absent the event to mitigate ex-post rationalisation bias. Tourism demand remains unchanged based on the full sample due to offsetting behavioural responses: travel versus stay-at-home attraction among positively affected, and substitution versus crowding-out among negatively affected. However, focusing on actual travellers, affected individuals exhibit a larger increase in overnight stays than unaffected residents, without increasing visit frequency. Micro-level approaches are critical to capture how mega events reshape tourism demand.