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Projecting future damage costs of non‐native species using combined dynamical and cost–density equations

Author

Listed:
  • Danish A Ahmed

    (GUST - Gulf University for Science and Technology)

  • Corey J A Bradshaw

    (Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders University [Adelaide, Australia])

  • Noor Tahat

    (GUST - Gulf University for Science and Technology)

  • Emma J Hudgins

    (Carleton University - Department of Biology [Ottawa] - Carleton University, University of Melbourne)

  • Pierre Courtois

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)

  • Philip E Hulme

    (Lincoln University [Nouvelle-Zélande])

  • Yuya Watari

    (FFPRI - Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute)

  • Ali Serhan Tarkan

    (University of Lódź = Uniwersytet Łódzki)

  • Ismael Soto

    (University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia])

  • Phillip J Haubrock

    (University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia], BU - Bournemouth University [Poole])

  • Paride Balzani

    (University of South Bohemia [České Budějovice, Czechia])

  • Ross N Cuthbert

    (QUB - Queen's University [Belfast])

Abstract

Biological invasions threaten biodiversity, economic stability, and public health, exacerbated by intensive global trade and transport. The economic costs of these invasions have exceeded US$2 trillion globally and continue to increase. Although past invasion costs have been described across various contexts, there are few robust projections of future costs, limiting effective management planning. We developed a mathematical framework to project future economic damage caused by biological invasions, combining cost-density relationships with a density-time function based on logistic population growth. We tested the model on five well-documented non-native mammal species in Japan, a country with long-term, high-resolution invasion cost records and a

Suggested Citation

  • Danish A Ahmed & Corey J A Bradshaw & Noor Tahat & Emma J Hudgins & Pierre Courtois & Philip E Hulme & Yuya Watari & Ali Serhan Tarkan & Ismael Soto & Phillip J Haubrock & Paride Balzani & Ross N Cuth, 2026. "Projecting future damage costs of non‐native species using combined dynamical and cost–density equations," Post-Print hal-05690638, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05690638
    DOI: 10.1002/eap.70252
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05690638v1
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