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Measuring sensitive outcomes through ballot-bag surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Crépon

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Ahmed Elsayed

  • Jules Gazeaud

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations - French Collaborative Institute on Migration [Aubervilliers])

Abstract

Prevailing methods for measuring sensitive outcomes confront researchers with an inherent bias-variance trade-off: direct questioning is prone to a sensitivity bias, while indirect methods such as list experiments are substantially less precise. We test the ballot-bag, a novel technique that relaxes this trade-off by mitigating bias in direct questioning while improving precision over indirect methods. In an experiment in Egypt, where direct questions on irregular migration are biased, ballot-bag estimates are not statistically different from those from a list experiment but exhibit significantly lower variance. Consequently, treatment effects are highly significant via the ballot-bag and not via the list experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Crépon & Ahmed Elsayed & Jules Gazeaud, 2026. "Measuring sensitive outcomes through ballot-bag surveys," Post-Print hal-05665627, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05665627
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05665627v1
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