The impact of climate change, disturbance and forest management on ecosystem service distribution across Europe’s largest plantation forest in the 21st century

Context Climate shifts and increasing disturbance events are affecting forest functioning and stakeholders. Uncertainty in future conditions complicates selecting optimal management strategies, necessitating to evaluate them within the context of changing environmental constraints. Objectives This study explores how different management strategies affect the provision of forest ecosystem services within plantation forests, taking into account spatial variations in climate, risk vulnerability, and soil water reserve. Additionally, it aims to assess the impact of future climates on these services, including economic value, timber production, carbon sequestration in situ and in wood products, and water drainage. Methods We analyzed the spatial distribution of forest ecosystem performances in a 0.8Mha plantation forest across the twenty-first century according to four management options under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We utilized 2006–2100 forest projections of the maritime pine forest in southwestern France. These projections were generated by a suite of process-based models simulating forest growth and management (GO+), potential damage from storms (ForestGales), fire and pests (ex-post calculations), and the carbon lifecycle of wood products (CAT). Results Principal component analysis evidenced the overall pattern of correlation among ecosystem services, risk, and their dynamics. Rainfall emerged as the primary driver of spatial variance in ecosystem services. Wood-product carbon levels distinguished management regimes, while in situ sequestration correlated negatively with export but positively with net present value. The forest vulnerability to risks increased over time for both scenarios. Clustering analysis identified regions with high production potential, areas where current managements should be replaced, and zones at risk of ecosystem performance decline. Conclusions Our geospatial analysis identified distinct ecosystem service bundles and their temporal shifts, highlighting how different management strategies uniquely influence landscape productivity. These insights can guide targeted ecosystem management to optimize service delivery.