Border rejections and African agricultural exports: Insights from RASFF data and robust gravity model estimation

This study examines the impact of European Union (EU) border rejections triggered by non-tariff measure (NTM) compliance failures on African exports of edible fruits and vegetables between 2008 and 2018. Using data from the EU's Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) and export statistics from 45 African countries (UN WITS), we employ a structural sectoral gravity model to address key econometric challenges, including endogeneity of border rejections and zero trade flows. The analysis reveals that NTM-related rejections, often due to exceedances of pesticide or aflatoxin maximum residue limits, and presence of unauthorized substances such as dichlorvos, carbendazim, or dead insects, significantly reduce both the number of European trade partners and the export value of African vegetables. Conversely, fruit exports show a modest increase in trade partners and export value following rejections, suggesting possible adaptive strategies or shifts in trade dynamics. The study also identifies spillover effects, where rejections in one product category lead to increased rejections in related categories in subsequent years. These findings underscore the need for African countries to strengthen compliance with EU sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements, invest in regional testing and certification capacity, and improve coordination between exporters and regulatory authorities.