Facing prolonged uncertainty: how is forest planning evolving? Insights from the French state forests

This study shows how climate change profoundly reshapes forest planning routines. Based on a French state forest case study, it demonstrates a shift from rigid, long-term planning toward adaptive planning built on shorter cycles, continuous monitoring through remote sensing, and renewed governance that strengthens coordination within forest administrations and with external stakeholders. Context: Climate change fundamentally challenges the foundations of traditional forest planning, which has long relied on stable ecological baselines, long-term predictability, and deterministic planning cycles. Increasing disturbances such as droughts, pests, and large-scale dieback undermine these assumptions and create conditions of prolonged uncertainty, rendering conventional planning increasingly ineffective. Aims: We explored how forest planners adapt their practices to cope with this prolonged uncertainty and provide emerging alternatives, through the theoretical framework of organizational routines to analyze both stability and change. Methods: We conducted an in-depth single-case study of a French state forest, combining interviews, field observations, and analysis of management documents. Using an abductive and processual approach, we traced the sequencing of actions, actors, and artifacts to understand how forest planning routines evolve in practice. Results: We identify three major shifts: the shortening of planning cycles to reduce long-term obsolescence; the integration of continuous monitoring enabled by remote sensing technologies; and the redesign of governance arrangements to enhance internal coordination and stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Forest planning is transitioning from a fixed long-term roadmap toward an adaptive, continuously updated process designed to cope with persistent uncertainty.