Fiscal Structure and Tax Revenue Dynamics in Morocco: A Disaggregated Time Series Analysis

This paper examines the dynamics of tax revenues and fiscal structure in Morocco over the period 2000-2024, with a particular focus on the temporal behavior of major tax components and their adjustment to revenue fluctuations. Building on the literature on fiscal dynamics in emerging economies, the study emphasizes the role of tax composition in shaping revenue stability. The empirical analysis relies on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Unit root tests are first conducted to determine the stochastic properties of the series, followed by model identification, estimation, and diagnostic validation. The results indicate that all tax series are integrated of order one, suggesting persistent shocks and long-lasting effects. The findings also reveal heterogeneous dynamic patterns across tax instruments: personal income tax is sensitive to short-term fluctuations, corporate income tax exhibits dynamics consistent with a highly cyclical tax base, while value added tax displays greater stability due to its broader base. These results highlight the central role of fiscal structure in shaping revenue resilience. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that fiscal performance depends not only on the level of taxation, but also on the stochastic behavior and dynamic properties of its components.