Assessing the potential supply risk mitigation due to public policies: Application of the GeoPolRisk method to critical raw materials in the EU

Various countries evaluate critical raw materials (CRM) to pilot strategic sectors and inform policy. This contribution evaluates the impact of policies on the supply risk of CRM focusing on the CRM Act benchmarks determined by the European Commission. Based on these benchmarks, we employ the GeoPolRisk method to estimate the potential risk mitigation attainable within the capacity limits of the EU. Mitigation strategies for a first group of CRM are limited to recycling technologies due to a restricted international market and limited reserves. Current practices in the EU for another group require moderate improvements to attain the benchmarks. The cases of Co and Li show the need for mixed strategies. The analysis is limited by the data required for the assessment; specifically for REE, the application could improve if detailed data becomes available. Future iterations of the approach could take into account the current deployment of strategic projects for CRM production for the EU; moreover, the application of criticality metrics at intermediate stages in the chain could also reveal bottlenecks in the transformative industry.