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Tax Pressure and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Morocco Using an ARDL-ECM Framework
[Pression fiscale et ajustement macroéconomique dans les économies émergentes : évidence empirique du Maroc à partir d’un modèle ARDL-ECM]

Author

Listed:
  • Mounir Atlassi

    (University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco)

  • Mohamed Karim

    (University Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco)

  • Ilham Dkhissi

    (BEAR Lab - RBS - UIR - BEAR Lab - Rabat Business School - International University of Rabat)

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants and dynamic adjustment of tax pressure in Morocco over the period 2000–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and its associated Error Correction Model (ECM). While the empirical literature on Moroccan taxation remains largely static and descriptive, offering limited insight into short-run adjustment dynamics, this study addresses this gap by providing a dynamic analysis of fiscal adjustment mechanisms in an emerging economy context. The results reveal a mixed order of integration among the variables, justifying the use of the ARDL approach. Although the bounds test yields inconclusive evidence of cointegration, the error correction term is negative and highly statistically significant (−0.833, p

Suggested Citation

  • Mounir Atlassi & Mohamed Karim & Ilham Dkhissi, 2026. "Tax Pressure and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Morocco Using an ARDL-ECM Framework [Pression fiscale et ajustement macroéconomique dans les économies émergentes : évidence empirique du Maroc à partir d’un modèle ARD," Post-Print hal-05622906, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05622906
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20045157
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05622906v1
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