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Growth resilience after internal armed conflicts in African countries

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  • Idrissa Aladji Aya

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

Abstract

Armed conflicts are widely acknowledged as significant obstacles to economic stability and growth. This study analyzes how African countries recover economically after internal conflicts, focusing on endogeneity issues related to reverse causality. We use the entropy balancing method and find evidence of an economic catch-up effect in the post-conflict period. The analysis of transmission channels reveals that increased investment, consumption, and trade are the primary drivers of post-conflict economic recovery. The cumulative impact of growth is estimated at 2 percentage points in the first year, increasing only slightly to 2.5 percentage points by the fifth year. This modest 0.5 percentage point increase over five years indicates that post-conflict growth remains volatile and unsustainable, reflecting the persistent effects of conflict. We perform a series of robustness checks to validate our results, ensuring the consistency and reliability of our estimates across various specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Idrissa Aladji Aya, 2026. "Growth resilience after internal armed conflicts in African countries," Post-Print hal-05621824, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05621824
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2026.2670597
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://uca.hal.science/hal-05621824v1
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