Evaluating the Trade-growth Nexus in India Using Hybrid Econometrics and Explainable Machine Learning

The trade–growth relationship in India has been widely studied, with evidence suggesting a long-run association but considerable variation driven by structural shifts, policy changes, and global economic conditions. However, existing literature highlights potential asymmetries and nonlinearities in this nexus, motivating the use of hybrid econometric and machine learning approaches for deeper analysis. This paper examines the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in India using annual data from 1975 to 2024. ARDL and NARDL models estimate long-run equilibrium and test for asymmetric adjustment; Random Forest and XGBoost models provide predictive benchmarks, with SHAP values used to interpret feature contributions. The ARDL results confirm a stable cointegrating relationship. World GDP growth has a positive and significant effect on domestic output (β = 0.657, p < 0.05), and gross capital formation contributes positively at a weaker level (β = 0.130, p < 0.10). The error correction term (ECT = −1.197, p < 0.01) indicates fairly rapid reversion toward equilibrium following a shock. NARDL estimates show sign differences between the effects of positive and negative trade shocks, but a Wald test fails to reject symmetry (p = 0.522). The asymmetry, in other words, is apparent rather than statistically meaningful. Trade openness also does not register as a significant short-run growth driver. Among the models tested, NARDL edges out ARDL on prediction error (RMSE = 2.59 vs. 2.74), while both machine learning models perform worse (XGBoost: 3.77; Random Forest: 3.89). SHAP analysis identifies lagged trade openness, global growth, and capital formation as the dominant contributors. Trade openness is associated with growth in India, but the relationship is conditional. Global economic conditions and domestic investment drive outcomes more consistently - a finding that argues for stable trade policy and attention to underlying macroeconomic fundamentals.