Le nickel peut-il donner à la Nouvelle Calédonie les moyens de son indépendance financière ?

This scientific document analyzes whether the nickel sector can enable New Caledonia to achieve true financial autonomy from mainland France. The author demonstrates that, despite the importance of this resource, it does not currently manage to balance the balance of payments nor to fund public expenditures on its own. Projections indicate that to compensate for state financial transfers, a massive and sustainable increase in global prices or an unrealistic increase in mining production would be required. As it stands, nickel remains a major asset but is insufficient to guarantee the economic independence of the territory in isolation. The study thus highlights the vulnerability of the local economy to the volatility of metal prices on international markets.