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L’avenir de l’économie calédonienne : trois scénarios pour 2025

Author

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  • Bernard Poirine

    (UPF - Université de la Polynésie Française, GDI - Laboratoire Gouvernance et Développement Insulaire)

Abstract

This text examines the economic prospects of New Caledonia through the lens of the extended economic base theory. The author demonstrates that the growth of small island economies depends primarily on external resources, such as exports, tourism, and public financial transfers. By utilizing a Keynesian multiplier, the study compares the trajectories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia to highlight the significant impact of the nickel sector and state support. The text then proposes three prospective scenarios for 2025, ranging from optimistic growth to a severe recession based on the evolution of financial flows. In conclusion, the work emphasizes the necessity of a robust export strategy to offset a potential decrease in French public aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Poirine, 2019. "L’avenir de l’économie calédonienne : trois scénarios pour 2025," Post-Print hal-05615185, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05615185
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05615185v1
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