Managing uncertainty and simulating crisis situations with a cluster gaming system and an artificial intelligence driven decision-support systems[Apprivoiser l'incertitude et simuler des situations de crise par des jeux en grappe et des intelligences artificielles d’assistance aux décisions]

This paper explores the integration of artificial intelligence for decision support into the field of wargaming and crisis simulations through games. The authors propose an innovative approach based on cluster-structured games, using interconnected microgames to model the systemic complexity of modern crises and avoid the opacity issues associated with digital tools. The proposal first details various factors and variables that can be taken into account when simulating a crisis through a game. It then discusses several decision-support systems, focusing on models based on probabilistic planning, such as Markov decision processes. This choice aims to provide guidance and explainability through explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), enabling players to understand and analyze their own choices as well as those suggested by the AI. Finally, the paper discusses the early stages of applied research using the game "Hostage Rescue Squad".