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The Thwarted Resilience Trap: Political Survival, External Stabilization, and Structural Non-Transformation in Fragile States

Author

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  • Etienne Fakaba Sissoko

    (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako)

Abstract

This article examines the effects of political shocks on growth and structural transformation in a context of persistent fragility, using Mali as a case study for the period 1990-2023. It employs a counterfactual strategy combining synthetic control methods and time-series analysis to estimate Mali's trajectories in the absence of the 2012 shock. The findings reveal a robust decoupling: the shock generates a negative but transitory effect on growth, while producing a persistent deterioration in structural transformation. This divergence indicates that macroeconomic resilience does not translate into a dynamic of productive transformation. To interpret this result, the article develops the framework of the thwarted resilience trap, in which stabilization mechanisms, especially external ones, relax short-term constraints while weakening incentives for the accumulation of capabilities. The results are consistent with this mechanism, without establishing strict causal identification. The article thus redefines resilience as a nonmonotonic property and proposes an interpretation based on an intertemporal trade-off.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Fakaba Sissoko, 2026. "The Thwarted Resilience Trap: Political Survival, External Stabilization, and Structural Non-Transformation in Fragile States," Post-Print hal-05606019, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05606019
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19855453
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05606019v1
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    JEL classification:

    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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