Public procurement and economic growth in Morocco: a nonlinear econometric analysis by governance threshold[Marchés publics et croissance économique au Maroc : une analyse économétrique non linéaire par seuil de gouvernance]

Public procurement accounts for 15–17% of Morocco's GDP and constitutes a key instrument of economic policy. However, its actual impact on growth depends heavily on governance quality. This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between public procurement, governance and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1996–2024 (n = 28 observations). The empirical strategy combines OLS regressions and a threshold regression model inspired by Hansen (1999) and adapted for univariate time series. The results identify an optimal governance threshold of γ = 0.005. Below this threshold, the procurement-growth coefficient is negative (β₁ = −0.257, p = 0.438). Above it, the coefficient is positive (β₂ = +0.525, p = 0.122), though statistically insignificant at the 5% level a result that calls for cautious interpretation. Education spending is a significant growth driver. This paper fills an empirical gap by applying, for the first time on Moroccan data for the post-2015 period, a two-regime governance-conditioned decomposition incorporating digitalisation and competition indicators rarely used in the literature.