Signaling green, performing less green: An exploratory study on energy efficiency narratives and sustainability governance in Saudi mega-projects

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 has positioned sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate governance as central pillars of national development, yet the extent to which these ambitions translate into consistent, verifiable performance remains an open question. This exploratory qualitative study examines the institutional dynamics shaping sustainability implementation in the Kingdom's flagship urban mega-projects, drawing on document analysis and semi-structured interviews with five senior sustainability practitioners involved in developments such as NEOM, Qiddiya, and the Red Sea Project. The findings reveal a disjuncture—though progressively narrowing—between green assertion, expressed through high-profile sustainability narratives used for place branding, investor signaling, and international positioning, and less green performance, shaped by ongoing challenges in regulatory enforcement, data reliability, municipal oversight, and operational capacity. Importantly, interviewees emphasized that this gap is transitional rather than structural, reflecting the natural maturation trajectory of a young but rapidly advancing sustainability ecosystem. Sustainability thus emerges not only as a symbolic or reputational device, but as a strategic economic signal that accelerates institutional learning, market expectations, and governance reforms. The study contributes to the economics and governance literature by interpreting sustainability narratives as market signals embedded within evolving institutional environments, showing how assertion–performance gaps influence perceptions of institutional risk and long-term energy-efficiency outcomes in emerging markets. Overall, the analysis suggests that while challenges persist, Saudi Arabia's sustainability transition is marked by rapid institutional development, expanding regulatory capacity, and increasing operational sophistication, underscoring the need for continued investment in governance mechanisms, transparent monitoring systems, and capacity-building tools to align ambitious sustainability commitments with measurable performance improvements.