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Untangling the impact of Donald Trump’s speeches on AI-related cryptocurrency markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Trabelsi Karoui
  • Hela Nammouri

    (UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University), ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University))

  • Azza Béjaoui
  • Ahmed Jeribi

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Donald Trump's political speeches on cryptocurrency market dynamics, with a particular focus on AI-related digital assets. Using a high-frequency (1-minute) event-study design combined with text-based sentiment analysis, we quantify how Trump's speech sentiment shapes short-horizon volatility and tail risk across Bitcoin and five AI-focused tokens. The results show that Trump's speech sentiment dampens immediate price volatility while simultaneously increasing downside tail-risk exposure. This "calm‑but-extreme" response is most pronounced in mature assets such as Bitcoin and Fetch.ai. The results suggest that political messaging can stabilize routine market fluctuations while heightening the likelihood of extreme return outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of including political sentiment in risk-monitoring frameworks for AI-driven cryptocurrency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Trabelsi Karoui & Hela Nammouri & Azza Béjaoui & Ahmed Jeribi, 2026. "Untangling the impact of Donald Trump’s speeches on AI-related cryptocurrency markets," Post-Print hal-05574924, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05574924
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109522
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