IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-05562595.html

Analyzing the Impact of AfCFTA on Product Diversification: The Mediating Role of Non-tariff Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Ebenezer Amonoo

    (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, China.)

  • Mitchell Nkazana Mhlanga

    (Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, China.)

Abstract

This study investigates the causal impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on export product diversification, with particular attention to the role of non-tariff measures (NTMs). While tariff reductions under AfCFTA are expected to stimulate intra-African trade, the persistence of NTMs raises important questions about the extent to which the agreement can drive structural transformation. Using a panel of 36 African countries from 2015 to 2023, we apply the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate counterfactual outcomes for treated units. The analysis incorporates NTMs and export volumes as predictors, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of both trade barriers and trade intensity. Results show that AfCFTA membership increased product diversification by an estimated 9.84 additional products relative to synthetic controls, with placebo tests confirming the robustness of this effect. However, the results also reveal that NTMs act as a mediating factor, dampening but not eliminating the gains from AfCFTA. The findings highlight that AfCFTA can substantially promote diversification, but its success depends on complementary policies to streamline NTMs. These results provide important policy insights for African trade policymakers seeking to enhance regional trade integration and support sustainable economic transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ebenezer Amonoo & Mitchell Nkazana Mhlanga, 2026. "Analyzing the Impact of AfCFTA on Product Diversification: The Mediating Role of Non-tariff Measures," Post-Print hal-05562595, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05562595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05562595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.