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The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Tanguy Bernard

    (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Stefan Dercon

    (University of Oxford)

  • Kate Orkin

    (University of Oxford)

  • Giulio Schinaia

    (University of Chicago)

  • Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse

    (IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [India] - IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

Abstract

Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomised control trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention which aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations and, through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children's education and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanguy Bernard & Stefan Dercon & Kate Orkin & Giulio Schinaia & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, 2026. "The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-Term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia," Post-Print hal-05472531, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05472531
    DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjag002
    as

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    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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