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The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco's economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model
[L'influence des fluctuations des prix du pétrole sur la performance économique du Maroc : Analyse empirique avec le modèle VECM]

Author

Listed:
  • Abdelillah Moustahfid

    (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat)

  • Safae Abouali

    (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat)

  • Abdellah Echaoui

    (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat)

  • Ismail El Balghity

    (Université Sultan Moulay Slimane de Béni Mellal)

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of oil prices on Morocco's GDP. It uses an empirical approach based on a vector error correction model (VECM) incorporating five variables: GDP, oil prices, consumer prices, balance of payments, exports and imports, over a 32-year period from 1991 to 2022.The results show that oil price fluctuations have a significant influence on Morocco's long-term economic performance. In particular, an increase in oil prices has a negative effect on GDP, highlighting the Moroccan economy's heavy dependence on energy imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdelillah Moustahfid & Safae Abouali & Abdellah Echaoui & Ismail El Balghity, 2026. "The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco's economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model [L'influence des fluctuations des prix du pétrole sur la performance économique du Maroc : Analyse empirique avec le modèle VECM]," Post-Print hal-05462810, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462810
    DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18093280
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05462810v1
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