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Stochastic Sarima Models For Simulating Rainfall Drought In Sudan

Author

Listed:
  • Hisham Mohamed Hassan

    (Department of Econometrics, University of Khartoum, Faculty of Economics, Sudan.)

  • Tariq Mahgoub Mohamed

    (Khartoum Technical College, Sudan.)

Abstract

This paper presents linear stochastic models known as multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) used to simulate droughts in Gadaref region, Sudan. The models are applied to simulate droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series, the results show that the fitted model is adequate to the SPI_6 for Gadaref station is the SARIMA (0, 0, 5) (1,0,1)6 model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hisham Mohamed Hassan & Tariq Mahgoub Mohamed, 2015. "Stochastic Sarima Models For Simulating Rainfall Drought In Sudan," Post-Print hal-05428350, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05428350
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