Analyzing the long-term interest of agroforestry in the context of uncertainties

Agroforestry has been promoted as a sustainable land-use practice that combines trees and crops to optimize productivity and enhance ecosystem services. However, its long-term benefits are subject to uncertainties. This paper examines the conditions under which agroforestry remains competitive compared to conventional agriculture and forestry, highlighting how the integration of agroforestry can also limit adaptability in the face of environmental and economic change. Using a dynamic model, we explore the trade-offs between agroforestry and conventional land-use specialization, incorporating the concept of quasi-option value to underscore the importance of maintaining flexibility in decision-making under uncertainty. Our analysis of a hypothetical farm offers a framework for evaluating strategic choices under uncertainty across context-dependent agronomic and market conditions, providing a transparent assessment of when agroforestry is competitive and when it is not. Beyond sensitivity exploration, we provide a calibration-and-validation template with explicit data inputs so that practitioners can instantiate the model on specific farms or regions and assess whether agroforestry is adoption-worthy under their local conditions.