Industrial deepening as an option for a sustainable pattern for Argentina[La profundización industrial como opción para un patrón sostenible para la Argentina]

Over the last forty-five years Argentina has gone through a long period of low dynamism, during which at least four different socio-economic patterns were registered. Nevertheless, the country has not succeeded at its different attempts to achieve a sustainable and equitable growth pattern. Although a development project involves not only economic but also political and social components, this article aims to address this issue from its economic aspect. The article develops an economic planning exercise that compares and evaluates options for the specialization profile that the possible trajectory of the argentine economy could adopt, examining its sustainability. The analysis is elaborated using a model based on the input-output matrix of the Argentine economy. Different scenarios are defined, choosing sectors with greater growth dynamism, combining them to define one scenario of primarization, one of export led industrialization and another one of industrial deepening. The analysis focuses on fiscal and external sector sustainability and on the investment demand for each scenario, both for the time horizon and for the accumulated over 10 years. The Industrial Deepening Scenario notoriously reduces the external gap, when compared to other scenarios, although it is more demanding in investment. Furthermore, while all scenarios accumulate significant imbalances, the Industrial Deepening Scenario is the one that leads to least external indebtedness. Finally, the article examines the Industrial Deepening Scenario as the most desirable for a growth strategy. It is proposed an indicator that links international trade with domestic production, identifying industrial sectors which could lead the industrial deepening strategy, considering its potential for import substitution and export capacity. Eleven productive sectors are identified and the analysis shows that the Chemical, Automotive and Ships, locomotives and aircrafts sectors present the greatest potential.