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Examining copper supply consistency in socioeconomic pathways: A mine-level dynamic approach

Author

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  • Gaël Parpan

    (PIMM - Laboratoire Procédés et Ingénierie en Mécanique et Matériaux - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies)

  • Baptiste Andrieu

    (Department of Engineering [Cambridge] - CAM - University of Cambridge [Cambridge, UK])

  • Olivier Vidal

    (ISTerre - Institut des Sciences de la Terre - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - Fédération OSUG - Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Louis Delannoy

    (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm Resilience Centre - Stockholm University)

  • Hugo Le Boulzec

    (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)

  • Matthieu Gervais

    (PIMM - Laboratoire Procédés et Ingénierie en Mécanique et Matériaux - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies)

  • Yves Jégourel

    (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam])

  • Stéphane Delalande

    (PIMM - Laboratoire Procédés et Ingénierie en Mécanique et Matériaux - Cnam - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [Cnam] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies)

Abstract

Primary copper production capacity is crucial given future demand and social, environmental, technical, economic, and political constraints, often overlooked in decarbonization pathway models. To address this, we propose a methodology to examine the consistency of the basic drivers of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for primary copper requirements using the DyMEMDS stock-flow model. Our approach involves projecting primary copper production capacities to 2050 on a mine-by-mine basis, integrating mining industry dynamics based on commercial data. Results indicate significant concerns regarding the consistency of SSPs' basic drivers for copper requirements, revealing potential gaps exceeding 40 Mt in worst-case scenarios. Such discrepancies could impact technology deployments necessary for socioeconomic and decarbonisation assumptions. We recommend that the decarbonization modeling community align scenarios with mining industry constraints. Considering resource efficiency and circular economy strategies is essential for proposing more consistent scenarios to decision-makers, thereby mitigating risks of copper supply shortages hindering climate action

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Parpan & Baptiste Andrieu & Olivier Vidal & Louis Delannoy & Hugo Le Boulzec & Matthieu Gervais & Yves Jégourel & Stéphane Delalande, 2026. "Examining copper supply consistency in socioeconomic pathways: A mine-level dynamic approach," Post-Print hal-05346790, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05346790
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108633
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05346790v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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