Decoding Migration Capability: (Im)Mobility Decision-Making in the Ukrainian Population

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dimensions of im/mobility within the population of western Ukraine. It challenges the typical focus on receiving countries by examining both the capabilities and motivations for staying in Ukraine or considering emigration. Based on data from 1242 individual questionnaires collected in a pre-invasion survey in western Ukraine, this study provides a comparative analysis of return migrants and non-migrants, examining the relationship between past migration experience and the likelihood of future (im)mobility. We construct a novel migration capability scale that situates migration capability along a continuum and offers a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of place-based decision-making (grounded in the fulfilment of basic economic needs, transnational social ties, risk attitude, and foreign language proficiency). Only 11% of respondents reported having no migration potential, while those with the highest migration capabilities - including both returnees and non-migrants - were often undecided about their future mobility. Regression analyses show that past migration experience enhances migration capability, yet decision-making is ultimately influenced by personal motivations, socio-demographic factors, and the evolving relationship between population and place. These findings have important implications for migration policy and spatial planning.